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Principale » Oil price drops more than US$1on IEA warning of shrinking demand

Oil price drops more than US$1on IEA warning of shrinking demand

14 Novembre 2017

The IEA also today released its latest World Energy Outlook, in which it said global oil demand will fall modestly due to the rise in electric cars.

Crude oil markets are expected to be oversupplied in the current quarter and going into 2018, the IEA said.

Under its "New Policies Scenario", based on existing legislation and announced policy intentions relative to emissions and climate change, the oil price should continue to rise towards $83 a barrel by the mid-2020s. "This is a continuation of the strong demand growth we are seeing in our short term oil market analysis", the report said.

The largest contribution to demand growth - nearly 30 per cent - would come from India, whose share of global energy would rise to 11 per cent by 2040, it said. That means that, despite the rapid deployment of wind and solar power worldwide, global Carbon dioxide emissions will continue to rise until 2040, "far from enough to avoid the severe impacts of climate change", the IEA said.

The biggest threat to market balances, aside from a tempering in demand, is the growth in supply from non-OPEC nations.

"The U.S. [shale] oil industry avoided the blow by morphing into a leaner, more agile version of its former self; it has since proved remarkably resilient to lower prices", the IEA said. "There's big growth coming from shale oil, and as such there'll be a big difference between the USA and other producers".

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Global oil supply rose by 100,000 bpd in October to 97.5m bpd on higher production from non-Opec countries, and non-Opec oil supply is expected to rise by 700,000 bpd this year and 1.4m bpd next year, led by stronger output in the US.

The United States can look forward to many more years of an unprecedented oil and gas boom.

It expects the U.S. to account for 80% of the increase in global oil supply to 2025, driven by increases in shale. Forecasts for shale-oil output in 2025 were bolstered by 34 per cent to 9 million barrels a day.

The report suggested that over the next two decades, the global energy system would be reshaped by four major forces: the United States as it becomes global oil and gas leader, rapid deployment of renewables, growing share of electricity in the energy mix, and China's new economic strategy taking it on a cleaner growth mode.

Chris Watling, CEO and chief market strategist at Longview Economics, was quoted as saying that the adoption of EVs could lead to global peak oil demand as soon as 2023, which will result in oil prices crashing to $10.

Oil price drops more than US$1on IEA warning of shrinking demand