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Oil market moving back into balance: IEA

13 Septembre 2017

"On the supply side, global production fell in August for the first time since April, with lower output from OPEC countries being one factor but also, following a fall in month-on-month production in June, US crude production has been affected by Harvey from a lower base than we anticipated", the IEA report said. For 2018, the IEA is predicting growth of 1.4 mb/d, or 1.4 per cent.

Russia's output made up 316,000 barrels against 300,000 barrels per day.

On Tuesday, OPEC, in its monthly report, also pointed to a decline in its production in August as a sign that supply and demand could be moving further toward balance.

The 12 members of OPEC bound by a supply-cutting pact raised their compliance to 82 percent in August from 75 percent in July.

Global oil demand will climb this year by the most since 2015, the International Energy Agency said, amid stronger-than-expected consumption in Europe and the U.S. The IEA, which advises most major economies on energy policy, increased its estimate for demand growth in 2017 by 100,000 barrels a day to 1.6 million a day, or 1.7 percent.

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"OECD product stocks were only 35 mln barrels above the five-year average at end-July and could soon fall below it because of the impact of Hurricane Harvey", IEA said. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production are seen averaging 6.49 mb/d in 2018, representing an increase of 0.18 mb/d, broadly in line with growth in the current year.

"With U.S. export volumes expected to increase, the strategic importance of the Gulf Coast will only grow. In August, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 79 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.76 mb/d", the report stated.

The difference between Brent and WTI, known as the spread, rose by 11 cents to $5.41 in the favour of the global benchmark, as Hurricanes Harvey and Irma continued to impact demand for both crude and oil products in the U.S.

Supply is also said to have been hampered by Hurricane Harvey in the US, which caused refineries to shut.

Global benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 was down 13 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $54.14 a barrel, having settled up 0.8 percent in the previous session.