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United States rates futures slip on concerns about BOJ, ECB stimulus

14 Juin 2017

However, in another baby step towards eventually starting the process of withdrawing monetary stimulus, the European Central Bank adjusted its announcement statement by removing the rate-cut bias from the sentence "interest rates to remain at present or lower levels".

He said the bank removed the language about potentially lowering interest rates because ultra-low inflation risks have gone.

Rates will "remain at their present levels for an extended period of time", the spokesman said.

EUR/USD spiked to 1.1262 for a high following the 07:45 ET policy statement by the European Central Bank (ECB), then reversed sharply to the downside, with the session low now standing at 1.1217.

"All in all, it reinforced the idea that interest rates will only be raised a long time after the end of the asset-purchase program". The core inflation rate that the European Central Bank pays particular attention to is even more depressing.

"However headline inflation rates have started to roll over in May and core inflation continues to hover around 1 percent", Lesné says, adding: "The positive performance of risky euro assets may continue as long as the term "taper" is not uttered too loudly".

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Meanwhile, inflation in the currency area sank to 1.4 per cent, which is below the bank's target, although Mr Draghi said "deflation risks have definitely gone away". Gross fixed capital formation was 1.3 percent higher in the quarter and up 6.0 percent year-on-year.

The downgrade mainly reflected lower oil prices, Draghi said.

Draghi made the statement as the central bank lowered its forecasts for inflation this year to 1.5 percent from 1.7 percent, and for next year to 1.3 percent from 1.6 percent. In a further blow for euro bulls, Draghi confirmed that the Governing Council had not discussed policy normalization at the June meeting, suggesting such a debate probably won't start before the September meeting. Revitalizing other euro zone members' economies would also support the growth of the Estonian economy, Draghi said.

While the clearer horizon justified an end to talk of lowering interest rates, it does not herald a quick exit from bond-buying. But the European Central Bank is so concerned by the issue of poor pay growth that it published a study last month using a new measure of joblessness counting people who want to work more hours but can't. Asset purchases under the programme are due to continue at least until December at a pace of 60 billion euros per month.

Traders in the currency market will closely monitor U.S. Senate testimony by Comey, anxious this could dampen already flagging momentum for President Donald Trump's agenda of rolling back regulation and overhauling the tax code. The ECB left its aggressive stimulus unchanged, including its €2.3 trillion bond-buying programme, despite resistance from cash-rich Germany.

United States rates futures slip on concerns about BOJ, ECB stimulus