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Oil price rises as Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia back supply cut

20 Mai 2017

The Saudi-Russia announcement on Monday will probably extend a price rebound that began last week, though the rally is "modest" compared to the increase when OPEC cuts were first agreed to late a year ago, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report.

"We hope that during the next meeting of OPEC members and other states, during which the agreement will be discussed, we will be able to extend this historic initiative", the statement said.

"It has taken some time for stocks to reflect lower supply when volumes produced before output cuts by OPEC and eleven non-OPEC countries took effect are still being absorbed by the market", the report said. This is required to stabilize the oil market. "We discussed this topic and we support this kind of proposal".

The two countries produce 20 million barrels of crude oil a day - about one-fifth of global consumption - and other oil-producing nations are expected to follow their lead over cuts.

Analysts are expecting Opec to extend the agreement for another six months when the cartel meets later this month, and there appears to be a consensus emerging among nations involved in the original pact to extend the agreement beyond June, according to Saudi Arabia's Opec governor, Adeeb Al-Aama.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that extending oil output cuts for further nine months would ensure stable oil prices.

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Global oil inventories increased by 100,000 barrels a day in the first quarter - just 8% of their gain a year ago - and are set to drop by 700,000 a day in the second, the agency said.

Brent crude futures were at $52.05 per barrel at 0129 GMT, up 23 cents, or 0.44 percent, from their last close. Surging US production has raised concern that Opec and its partners are failing to reduce an oversupply.

Oil prices hit a three-week high after the announcement, while shares of oil majors Exxon and Chevron were up 1 percent in premarket trading.

There's a "good chance" that Russian Federation, a non-OPEC nation, will extend its cooperation with the organization because Saudi Arabia wants price stability and is complying with its obligations in the deal, he said.

If producers maintain their cuts at the current pace, it could push the market into a small deficit by the fourth quarter, said Edward Bell, director for commodity research at Emirates NBD in Dubai. USA output has risen more than 10% since the middle of a year ago, and data released on Friday by oil services firm Baker Hughes showed that the number of active rigs across the country rose for the 17th week in a row.