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Global oil rises on United States inventory draw

20 Mai 2017

In order to achieve the target of reducing these stocks to their five-year average over an extended nine-month period of supply cuts, BMI said that inventory drawdowns would have to average 25.6 million barrels per month in the three last quarters of the year.

Opec and its allies can only hope that increased USA production won't jeopardise its aim of bringing down global crude stockpiles to the five-year average-putting a floor under prices and making sure they don't plummet.

In December 2016, OPEC and non-OPEC producers reached their first deal since 2001 to curtail oil output jointly and ease a global glut after more than two years of low prices.

OPEC members agreed in November to cut 1.2 million barrels a day of oil production.

Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation, the world's two biggest crude producers and the ministers of the 22 OPEC member-countries have been trying their best to control crude oil prices, with OPEC members reducing output because of the three-year oil glut.

Oil futures rose Friday, on the heels of a strong session, as investors showed some optimism about what will come out of next week's meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. "If you do get prices in the mid-to-upper $50s all that's going to do is encourage a lot of production in the US", said Nauman Barakat, head of the energy desk at ADM Investor Services in NY.

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Domestic crude production recorded an unexpected decline of 0.1% on the week at 9.31 million bpd, breaking the sequence of gains, although output was still 5.8% higher over the year.

Libya's share of total OPEC oil export revenues has fluctuated since 2010 as the country's oil sector was disrupted during the civil war that overthrew the Gadhafi regime and, more recently, as warring factions in the country have repeatedly targeted oil sector installations. "Unfortunately for OPEC, it takes US shale oil producers four quarters to respond to higher crude oil prices on the screen", the note said.

"The crude oil drawdown disappointed some, but the fairly large rise in refinery utilisation bodes well for crude oil demand in the coming weeks", said John Kilduff, partner at energy hedge fund Again Capital LLC in NY.

Oil rig pumpjacks, also known as thirsty birds, extract crude from the Wilmington Field oil deposits area July 30, 2013. However, a decline of 1.75 million barrel in crude stockpiles fell short of Street expectations. U.S. crude oil was 16 United States cents lower at US$48.91.

"I think prices will move up to $51-$55 and in August may go to even $58", he said.

"One of the biggest difficulties facing the cartel, however, is that there is a lag between output cuts and inventory changes", Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note.